June 30, 2008: The Barron's article -- Why the Rout in Financials Isn't Over by Robin Goldwyn Blumenthal -- discusses Louise's views on the continuing difficulties in the financial-services sector, noting that "Yamada has been predicting trouble since late 2005", which was when Louise began writing about the technical evidence of deterioration in the Financials sector.

The full text of the article appears here (requires Barron's or Wall Street Journal subscription).

June 27, 2008: In a 10-page interview by Kate Welling published in Welling@Weeden, Louise discusses many topics including, among others, the current convergence of secular and cyclical downturns; "looking for inflation in all the wrong places"; declines among stocks that have been market leaders in the cyclical bull run since the 2003 bottom; commodities in a rapidly developing world; the future of oil and the dollar; and her thesis of a bifurcated market.

The full text of the interview is available at: welling.weedenco.com (subscription required).

June 27, 2008: On a day on which the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved briefly into bear market territory, Louise is interviewed by Melissa Lee on CNBC TV’s Street Signs. The almost 20% declines of the Dow and the NASDAQ from their October highs are concerning enough but Louise and her LYA team have an even lower target for the Dow of 10,000.

This downside target is a measured move from the larger head and shoulders top at about 14,000 with a neckline at 12,000. It is difficult to place a time frame on this measured move to 10,000 as there have been many little rallies throughout this deteriorating period since mid-2007. Technical improvement in the indicators would be necessary, however, for this target to change.

Louise’s downside target for the S&P 500 is 1,175. To approach that target the index would first have to break the March low; but if the index moves back above the May high that would abort further downside at this point for all the indices. With the NASDAQ the level to watch is 2,000. The Russell 2000 index has formed a tremendous top and there is potential for the Russell to go through 600 or even lower.

With respect to the concept of capitulation, many analysts have pointed to the increase in the VIX. Louise believes that with the VIX it is difficult to say how high is high enough to indicate capitulation. The volatility we are seeing in terms of the unwinding of the margin debt is just beginning, being now in a position very similar to early 2000, and a much larger unwinding process may yet remain. So if the VIX hasn’t reached levels that people are anticipating at this point, and markets continue to come down, it may reach those levels later. One should also watch the SDS (Double-Short S&P 500) which is more directly related to the indices than to the options.

June 23, 2008: Louise is a panelist at the Forbes Investors Advisory Institute Financial Round Table.

June 19, 2008: Interviewed by Bill Griffeth on CNBC TV's Power Lunch, Louise reviews three-year charts for the major indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shows the evolution of a very slow deterioration. At the 13,000 level the Dow had formed a "head and smaller shoulders" top with a measured downward move to the achieved March low of 11,740. Now extending a longer horizontal line (neckline) at 11,740, one can see an even larger "complex head and shoulders" top, with the measured move extending down from the neckline to about 10,000, a decline that is not out of the realm of possibility.

The S&P 500 shows a similar but less exact head and shoulders top pattern. The recent three-month rally in the S&P failed right at the resistance level of this top, which is exactly what one would expect. The slightly down-sloping perspective of the S&P 500 would suggest that there is still distribution taking place.

The NASDAQ, relative to the other major indexes, has been showing some signs of strength. The current question is whether the NASDAQ will fail at the resistance level of its recently-formed top and then take the index lower.

On the question of whether stocks move inversely to the price of oil, Louise notes that, despite the continuing, long-term rise in the price of oil, stocks have done very well for the last five years. Right now, however, the price of oil is at an extreme. The 120 price is the important support level defining an uptrend. A drop below 120 would be the first point at which some supply might begin to come in; and the price could then come back to 110.

Oil is in a long-term uptrend and has achieved all of the LYA team’s targets to 125; and there may be a 140 target. Statistically there are LYA calculations that take the price into the 200s. Louise does not expect oil to go appreciably lower from current levels.

Video of the interview is available at www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=773976060&play=1.

May 17-18, 2008: Mumbai TV airs extensive interview of Louise in CNBC Special Series on Technical Analysis that was prepared for broadcast in India.

May 2, 2008: Louise is interviewed on CNBC TV's Power Lunch by Bill Griffeth and Melissa Lee on trends in commodities. Specific topics include the CRB Index, wheat, gold, oil, the U.S. dollar and the 25-year shift of market capitalization out of the Financials and Consumer Discretionary into the new leadership. Video of the interview is available at: www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=729345948&play=1.

April 18, 2008: In an interview by Betty Liu on Bloomberg TV’s Starting Bell, Louise discusses the technical posture of the Citigroup (C) stock. In the last half-year C has lost 50% of its value--such a steep drop takes time for repair. The stock now looks like it is trying to stabilize and could experience a kickback rally, possibly taking it toward 30.

A chart of the last five years of the Financials relative to the S&P 500 looks like a double top versus the 2000 peak leading to the sector’s current decline which Louise believes is now a structural bear market for Financials. Structural bear markets last a long time as time is required for distribution to occur. This Relative Strength break below its 2001 and 2002 lows presents a profile of a six to seven year top. A return of C to its previous highs is not likely in the near future as most rallies will be met by disappointed investors trying to sell. Louise does not rate C a buy at this time except for attempting to catch a kickback rally.

While volume on the New York Stock Exchange has recently been low, Louise points out that much of today’s stock trading now takes place off the NYSE, or “off-Board”. A study started by Louise in 2005 shows that off-Board volume has grown from 15% of overall volume in 2001 to over 65% today. So while NYSE volume has been somewhat flat, the growth of off-Board trading has boosted total volume. Strong volume is needed for the market to rise; recent overall volume, however, has been lackluster.

Today’s equity market is a hybrid comprised of domestically-oriented stocks that are in structural bear markets, such as the Financials and Consumer Discretionary, and then the leadership stocks in the Industrials, such as Rails and Energy, that are rising. Even some Healthcare names have been in a structural bear market with Pfizer, for example, in a structural bear market since 2000.

This hybrid market is experiencing a push-pull effect together with a major shift in capitalization. Many large cap stocks are in bear markets and are holding the indexes lower while the new globally-exposed bull market stocks, many of which are smaller in capitalization, are rising.

The market might advance here if there were a kickback rally in all of the deteriorated sectors simultaneously with the advances that are starting to take place (after a cyclical corrective phase) in the new leaders. A caveat to this scenario is that the up-to-down volume relationship has been very poor and has been unable to get out of oversold, which means there has been selling into the rallies up to this point.

On specific stocks, if Google moves up today through 475 the rally may continue but, after such a steep decline as Google has experienced, a period of consolidation is usually needed before the stock can achieve new highs. Pfizer and Dell remain in structural bear markets but Halliburton is starting to look intriguing and is moving up.

April 15, 2008: Louise gives an extensive interview to Mumbai TV for a CNBC Special Series on Technical Analysis that will be broadcast in India in May.

April 2, 2008: Appearing on Bloomberg TV's Final Word, Louise continued her cautious stance on the markets, notwithstanding the potential of kickback rallies.

March 10, 2008: Interviewed by Bill Griffeth on CNBC TV's Power Lunch, Louise discusses the current price of gold. Video of the interview is available at: www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=680345089&play=1. [For full screen, right click video box and select Zoom/Full Screen.]

March 3, 2008: A summary and video of Dylan Ratigan's interview with Louise is available at: www.cnbc.com/id/23450058.

February 27, 2008: Louise is interviewed on Vinny Catalano's "Beyond the Soundbite". Parallels between today's markets and previous markets are covered, along with other trend topics. A podcast of the interview is available at: beyondthesoundbite.blogspot.com (enter "Louise Yamada" in the Search Blog box at the top of the page).

February 6, 2008: Appearing again on CNBC TV’s Fast Money, Louise is interviewed by Dylan Ratigan. Working with a monthly chart of the S&P 500, Louise looks past short-term ups and downs and notes that there is a long-term structural problem with the current market that is very reminiscent of market action in 2000.

In 2000 a long-term, 20-month moving average of the S&P 500 was violated, as was the support level -- an extended bear market period followed. Today, after a 5-year advance, the S&P is again breaking the 20-month moving average and breaking the support level, leading Louise to be extremely cautious on the equity market. “It doesn’t hurt to have some cash.”

These patterns differ from a single, brief instance of the 20-month moving average being violated and then quickly snapping back above the moving average to a new high without any break of support. The more complex patterns of 2000 and today include sideways movement with lower highs being put in place, showing that people are selling into the rallies, including the rally of the past week.

Such selling into rallies is advisable -- Louise and her team have structural sell signals on the domestic equity market. The sell signals apply also to global markets. Distribution patterns can be seen in the global equity markets, both the developed markets in Western Europe as well as the developing markets of Asia, although the Asian markets have been later to arrive at the distribution pattern.

The distribution may be an across-the-board de-leveraging process under way (as investors unwind leveraged positions), and it may be advisable to stay out of the way. “We would rather be out of the market wishing we were in, than in the market wishing we were out.” Many breakouts have failed after they tried to move up through resistance – these are false breakouts.

Some investors (such as mutual funds) have to stay invested in the market and for these investors relative outpeformance can be a helpful indicator. A chart of Consumer Staples vs. the S&P 500 shows that Consumer Staples, even as price rose, had been underperforming in 2007 while Materials, Energy and Industrials were advancing even more. Now, however, the sector has started to outperform.

Of course, relative outperformance does not guarantee that price will go up. Stocks can also go down less than stocks in weaker sectors. So for those who have to be in the market, this sector provides a defensive haven.

Louise’s final chart shows the relative performance of the Financials sector vs. the S&P 500. An enormous, multi-year structural breakdown has occurred. Whether the stocks are Banks, Consumer Finance, or REITs, these are areas for selling into strength.

On a specific stock recommended on this show months ago, Cisco Systems (CSCO) has tried to move up but has disappointed in a weakening market environment. If Cisco falls below $20 one must cut loss and sell.

Video of the interview is available at www.cnbc.com/id/23031631.

January 21, 2008: On a day when European and Asian stock indexes sold off sharply, Louise is interviewed on Bloomberg TV’s Starting Bell by Matt Miller and Betty Liu. Noting that as far back as November Louise had been calling for the current sell-off in the U.S. market, Miller asks if today’s carnage in foreign indexes will carry over to U.S. markets. Louise states that, given the breakdown in U.S. stocks over the past week, such a carry-through to the down-side is probable.

Examining a chart for the S&P 500, Louise points out that, starting from the index’s 2002 low, each time the market has sold off the S&P 500 index had held at a slightly higher low. Starting in March of this year through October, however, the pull-backs have not held at higher levels, showing that demand is weakening. In last week’s sell-off, the last level of demand has been violated, meaning that some sellers are willing to accept less money to get out. The distribution that has taken place over the past almost a year – in terms of the Advance-Decline Line; of the deterioration of the New Highs vs. the New Lows; and of the lack of volume – suggests that with this break-down we are probably headed for a bear market.

This break-down pattern also appears in the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart and in charts across the globe, although some indexes broke down earlier than others. The NASDAQ too is on the verge of a break-down although it has out-performed in the sense that it was one of the last to break down, just the way the Asian markets out-performed the European markets – the best, so to speak, go last.

The length and depth of this slump can only be determined as it evolves. The threshold of twenty percent off the high, which would define a bear market, comes in for the DJIA at 11,331 and for the S&P 500 at 1252. Average bear markets run around 35% down, more or less.

The current market has tracked identically the 1932 to 1937 market. The bear market that started in 2000 does not correspond to the 1966 to 1982 bear market (which was horizontal around the pivot low with inflation and rising interest rates). Under Elliot Wave Theory, the principle of alteration-of-cycles suggests that the current bear market should be like the prior cycle of 1929 to 1932 which carried deflation, falling rates and a crash.

No exact bottom can be projected. The support breaks that have just taken place over the past week or so, and a little earlier in some other averages like the Transports, plus what is happening in the global markets, are just the initial break-down.

Regarding specific stocks and commodities, American Express (AXP) has broken under a support level – a dramatic break of the 5-year up-trend and of the support levels that were put in place over the past year. The chart for AXP looks as though it has initiated at least a correction, if not a bear market stage.

The Citigroup (C) chart shows a secondary top in the period 2002 to 2007, not reaching sustainably higher than 2000. Despite a little false break-out this past year, Citigroup’s chart shows evidence that a secondary distribution has been taking place over 5 years; and the 2000 support level has already been breached taking C to a new structural 2000 bear market low.

Some stocks have stayed in a structural bear market since 2000. Citigroup may be one example; General Motors (GM) may be another. Since 1998 to 2000, the General Motors stock has experienced lower highs and lower lows. Each time the stock has tried to rally GM has been met with supply – with people selling into the rally. The stock then falls to a new low -- so GM is still in a structural downtrend from the inception of its bear market. The chances of the General Motors stock rebounding may be limited by competition from $2,500 cars.

Home Depot (HD) has also not made it back to its circa-2000 high. The stock’s secondary rally from the 2002 low never rose above the resistance levels that had been in place during the 2000 to 2002 decline. So there has been secondary distribution and now HD is breaking down again.

Schlumberger (SLB) is in a group that has been in a structural bull market -- but Schlumberger has just had a very severe pull-back. There is nothing yet to suggest that SLB is in a structural bear market. The stock has gone up at such an accelerated rate that it could come down even more and still be within its bull market up-trend.

The chart for Copper may be showing technical signs of an economic slowdown probably being underway or being discounted in advance. Copper has had a distribution pattern; any break between 320 and 300 is an important level. There was an initial dip that took Copper below the prior points at which demand came in over the course of the year. Now the rally is failing to get to new highs. Copper is probably looking at lower levels.

A structural bull market in gold was initiated in 2002 when the metal broke upwards through 300 and broke also its 22-year down-trend. Gold’s recent decline may be just a pullback although it may go as low as 850 or 800. The next resistance level on a short-term basis is 900. The structural progressions in the gold bull market may last anywhere from a decade or two to more. Having broken a 22-year bear market, gold may now be in an up-trend that could last a couple of decades. Louise has a target of 1000 and thinks conceptually that gold could go to 2000 or 3000 over time, over decades, taking into consideration the weakness of the dollar. Platinum has moved up at a little more accelerated rate; Silver has lagged. Gold is more the benchmark of correlation to the U.S. dollar.

Interviewer Matt Miller, noting that Louise and her team called a big rally in Oil back in 2004, asks if the rally will continue. Louise explains that Oil’s recent dip in price does not change the up-trend. Oil’s breakout through 40 in 2004 broke up through a 24-year plateau. There was also a multi-year step-up in oil in the 1940s which never went back to the old lows. This was followed by a similar 24-year plateau, and then a multi-year step-up in the 1970s. Louise suggested in 2004 that oil is now in another multi-year step-up with an outstanding target at 124, notwithstanding a possible pull-back toward 80. Projected forward over a decade, the price may reach 250 and possibly higher.

January 19, 2008: Louise discusses current market conditions with host Al Korelin on his syndicated radio show that is focused on asset-based investing and macroeconomics. Audio of the interview is available at kereport.com, click on January 19, 2008 and see segments 4 and 5.

December 17, 2007: Dylan Ratigan interviews Louise on CNBC TV's Fast Money. Commenting on a chart of the S&P Diversified Financials versus the S&P 500, Louise points out that the indicator has broken a six-year top, giving a message of structural deterioration.

This structural breakdown for Financials can last for years, as a similar breakdown did for Computer Hardware during its lengthy decline in the 1980s. Good rallies and bounces, both in relative strength and absolute price, can occur during the downtrend, (as occurred in Computer Hardware); but the sector then continued downward for another eight years. Although the business fundamentals of Computer Hardware are different from those of the Financials, the structural evidence of supply (stock being sold) in their breakdowns is comparable.

The Financials are currently showing a massive amount of supply. Since the market is a discounting mechanism, this amount of supply indicates market concerns over even as-yet unknown fundamental issues within the Financials; rallies should be used to lighten positions.

The breakdown in Financials is also a problem for the overall market. There is a strong correlation between the price action of the Financials as market leaders, up or down, and overall market performance.

On the upside, strong-looking charts include PepsiCo (PEP), Coca-Cola (KO) and other Consumer Staples companies that participate in the global economy and may prove defensive in this market environment. PepsiCo’s chart shows a continuing uptrend without deterioration or distribution. There may be pullbacks in an overall market pullback but the long-term uptrend suggests that PepsiCo may be at least a safe haven in a difficult market.

Consumer Discretionary stocks that are not globally-exposed, being primarily oriented to the domestic market, have suffered in comparison along with the Financial stocks.

Video of the interview is available at: www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=610155624

December 6, 2007: Interviewed on CNBC's Squawk Box by Joe Kernen about current market volatility, Louise notes that the Dow Jones Transportation Average has broken a 5-year uptrend and has also broken a support level, putting in place a lower low, which suggests evidence of supply coming into place indicating that there has been selling into strength.

The August 2007 lows are the critical lows for all the indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has only ticked below its August low of 12,845, creating a Dow Theory sell signal which would not be reversed until both the Dow and the Transports move to new highs. The Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 have also broken their August lows. Fifty percent of the NYSE stocks are more than 20% below their highs (defining bear markets) as is evident from the Advance-Decline Line. The AD line rose to confirm the 2006 rally, but trended down during the 2007 rally, forming a negative divergence with the equity market new highs. This would indicate internal deterioration in 2007 beneath the surface of the market. First the Homebuilders started to break down (Dec. 2006); then the Financials (March 2007); then the AD line deteriorated and the negative divergence started to widen, signifying underlying weakness.

When the DJIA went through its 2000 peak, the average broke out of a 7-year consolidation with a significant 6-year base. Louise's targets have been at 13,000 and 16,000 but a pullback to its breakout level near 12,000 is possible. The strength shown by the NYSE average, which has moved to new highs, may well be due to the distinction between globally-exposed and domestically-exposed stocks. A global build-out is underway today very similar to 1942-1966 domestic bull market build-out fueled by US housing and related needs of the soldiers returning from World War 2. Stocks that are participating in the global build-out are in bull markets; some stocks that are domestically-exposed, like the Financials, have fallen behind. Thus, Louise has described today's market as a "Bull, Bear, Hybrid".

Louise in 2000 suggested that we might see a pattern like the 1929-42 period. Based on the Elliot Wave concept of alternation of cycles, Louise's bear market expectation in 2000 was that the coming market cycle would be less like the 1966-1982 cycle (which was one of inflation and rising interest rates) and more like the alternate cycle of 1929-42 (with a crash, falling / low rates and deflationary pressures). And that the DJIA could parallel the 1932-37 period, which in fact has occurred identically. What occurred next was a 47% decline. Declines proportionate to the 47% drops experienced in 1937 are possible on a sector by sector basis; some Financials stocks have already suffered 47% declines.

Video of the interview is available at: cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=604587699

November 30, 2007: Interviewed on Bloomberg TV’s Final Word by Deirdre Bolton about this week’s rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Louise notes that the move may be a kickback rally, particularly in stocks that have been in structural decline, such as the Financials and Consumer Discretionary. The rally may be a good opportunity to lighten positions in groups that have structurally broken down, including Financials and Retail.

This week’s strong two-day move upwards in the DJIA should be viewed in the historical context of the frequent occurrence of two percent up-moves during bear market rallies, as was seen in the 1929-1932 and 2000-2002 periods. Similar rally patterns can also be seen in specific sectors, as in Homebuilders, only shortly thereafter to continue their structural declines. Not all market advances are equal. Some are kickback rallies that carry a stock up toward breakdown levels; other advances are continuing an uptrend.

Current levels of resistance are 13,600 for the DJIA and 1510 for the S&P 500. These major market indices have been outperforming the broader, underlying market. Recently over 50% of the New York Stock Exchange stocks are down 20 % or more which qualifies as a bear market.

It is possible that the market may behave as in 1994 when the major averages declined only 9%-10% but many individual stocks suffered bear market declines. Whether today’s market will act as in 1994 depends largely upon whether the major indices fall below their August 2007 lows. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has already done so. The DJIA merely ticked below its August low but this nonetheless gave a Dow Theory sell signal which would not be reversed unless both the DJIA and the Transport moved up to new highs. The Transports clearly looks like a kickback rally into the resistance that has been broken.

November 19, 2007: Dylan Ratigan interviews Louise on CNBC TV’s Fast Money. On the S&P 500, Louise sees the possibility of the August closing low of 1406 being broken. This would be an important break because for five years the index has put in place a series of higher lows followed by higher highs which defines both an uptrend and aggressive demand. A break below the August low would be the first evidence of aggressive supply coming into the equity market. The Transports have already had such a breakdown, and both the Russell 2000 index and the SD&P 600 index also did so today, leading Louise to remain extremely cautious and risk averse at this time. Caution is also warranted because throughout 2007 there has been deterioration under the market on the new highs. There could be seasonal rallies within the next five or six weeks, even in Retail, but they should be viewed as kickback rallies.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) has come off its recent high but is still putting in place higher lows. Even if CSCO were to pull back another couple of points that might offer a buying opportunity. It is important, however, to remain very selective on Technology. Broadcom (BRCM) previously had a false breakout but has now completely broken its support level. Since BRCM has not followed through on its technical progression it may be best to reduce holdings. Coca Cola (KO) has broken a 5 to 6-year downtrend, has achieved a 6-year base, and has now broken out above the prior highs. KO looks like it is initiating an uptrend and is a candidate to buy even in a market decline. In contrast, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) portrays a 4-year top that appears on the verge of starting to break down under $30. This would complete BBBY’s distribution pattern and may suggest that it could follow the declines of some of the other Retail stocks. Looking at the equity markets in general, their overriding structural deterioration suggests that any seasonal rally is not likely to be strong.

Video of the interview is available at www.cnbc.com.

November 12, 2007: Interviewed on CNBC TV's Street Signs by Erin Burnett about today's drop in commodity prices, Louise placed this market action in the context of the overall structural uptrend for commodities. This is not a bubble bursting but is rather a correction -- paralleling the pullback in the overall market -- in the continuing structural bull market for commodities.

Louise appraised today's up-move in the Financials as a bounce in an ongoing bear market, as opposed to commodities experiencing a pullback, or correction, in an ongoing uptrend. Corrections can last for a period of time and there may be buying opportunities as the commodities pull back and settle, but may need time since copper is breaking down from a six-month consolidation.

All of these down-moves, technically, appear to be taking place in longer-term structural uptrends. Nevertheless, copper could go as low as 250 or 240 and gold could go all the way to 750. These moves would be normal expectations within normal technical parameters within an ongoing uptrend. Gold broke out through a year-plus consolidation at 690 and then went up over 100 points very quickly. To have it pull back here would be a normal expectation. Oil could go to 85 or 80 but this "worst case scenario" would also be a normal expectation and still be within the ongoing structural uptrend.

Concerning the strength of the global economy and whether the completion of the Beijing Olympics will occasion a bursting of the global bubble in commodities, Louise described a potential "Y2K Olympics" effect in which China has been stockpiling and increasing production in advance of the Olympics so that production could be suspended a few months before the Games in order to mitigate air pollution. Since markets tend to discount events about six months in advance, the current pullback in commodities prices may be tied to this phenomenon of "slower aggressive growth" in China as part of the Y2K Olympics run-up.

Video of the interview is available at www.cnbc.com.

November 2, 2007: In an interview by Becky Quick on CNBC TV’s Squawk Box, Louise points out that the charts have been saying for most of the year that there has been deterioration under the surface of the rally that has been taking place. In June, Louise and her team started looking for the potential for a cyclical decline; there was a drop in August but on the major indices it wasn’t more than ten percent which is nothing more than a consolidation. Thinking, however, in terms of the Financials or the Consumer Discretionary, which perhaps do reflect the domestic economy and the consumer, these sectors have been in underperforming modes for most of the year and Louise has been recommending avoiding and selling them.

The market at this point is really a question of in what sectors you position yourself. Technology has been one area, very selectively though, you have to look for the new New-Tech names - not across the board - in which some stocks have been emerging from 6-year bases. Many investors who have been very discouraged since 2000 may not be aware that some of those Technology stocks are starting to finally complete their repair processes and are moving up nicely.

Video of the interview is available from CNBC TV. See Futures, Technicals & Volatility.

October 19, 2007: On the day on which the Dow Jones Industrial Average marked the 20th anniversary of the 1987 market crash by falling 367 points, Louise is interviewed on CNBC TV’s Fast Money by Dylan Ratigan. Assessing a chart of the S&P 500, Louise states that the day’s action is a normal pullback to the September breakout levels, with the DJIA also coming within 22 points of its September breakout level. Of the Dow’s total decline, 200 points were caused by only seven of its component stocks.

While the day’s pullbacks to the September breakout levels are normal, the market must be watched as there are divergences still in place and the down-move may develop into more of a corrective trend before it’s over. The underlying profile, however, remains the same with the weak groups moving to new lows; secondary breakdowns in Financials and Consumer Discretionary, particularly Retail, all within their downtrends; and with the strong groups and stocks, like the selective Technology names that are just pulling back in uptrends, providing a chance to buy these stronger names.

The result is money is being freed up to come into the stronger new leaders. Crucial support levels are the July and March lows that must be watched for the S&P 500, the Dow, and all the major indices and stocks. If those supports are violated then we have something more serious ahead of us.

Concerning the recent rise in the volatility index from 18 to 23, Louise notes that as the VIX gets into higher levels this has generally been associated with a more unsettled market environment, as was seen from 2000 to 2002. When the market started to rise, the VIX moved down and traded in a saucer bottom. That the VIX is now picking up again may mean that there could be a little bit more corrective activity ahead of us.

Concerning whether one should buy or sell at this time, Louise states that all declines are not equal. One should buy stocks that are pulling back in strong uptrends with good relative performance, including Technology, and should continue to sell stocks, particularly the Financials and Retail, that have broken secondary support levels in new declines.

Video of the interview is available at: www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=568306292&play=1.

October 15, 2007: Interviewed by Dylan Ratigan on CNBC TV's Fast Money on the 20th anniversary of the October 1987 stock market crash, Louise reviews the DJIA chart leading up to the October 19, 1987 sell-off. While the technical indicators at that time did not presage a crash, there were slight negative divergences in the daily Advance/Decline (but not the weekly) and negative divergences in the new highs vs. new lows (which condition exists again today). The work of Louise’s team in 1987 yielded a weekly momentum sell signal on October 8th but this indicated the underpinnings of a market correction or deterioration, not a crash. What was different from today was that interest rates were lifted with the Federal Reserve Board raising rates three times into the peak.

Turning to a DJIA chart for 2006-2007, a momentum sell signal was received in connection with the 340+ point up/down reversal but the signal then changed to a buy. There are some continuing negative divergences today in the high/lows and a minimal divergence in the A/Ds—plus volume has been unsatisfactory. While not immediately concerned about the market, Louise will be watching for signs of progressive negative divergences over the next two months.

Comparing the 1987 chart overlaid on the 2006-2007 chart, Louise noted a similar pattern in both charts leading up to October. A potentially crucial difference is that in 2007 the Federal Reserve Board intervened earlier with interest rates cuts, thereby possibly averting a more serious decline.

Looking forward, there is market rotation occurring under the surface where Technology is starting to outperform and Consumer Discretionary and Financials continue to deteriorate, so it’s a question of selling the deteriorating stocks into the rally. The chart of Broadcom (BRCM) shows higher lows and a one-year breakout, and BRCM appears to have further room to move up. As a result of the rotation into Technology, the NASDAQ is now outperforming the other major indexes. Louise noted, however, that Technology is very selective and one cannot buy across the board.

Video of the interview is available at: cnbc.com/id/21309972.

September 28, 2007: Interviewed by Dylan Ratigan on CNBC TV's Fast Money, Louise discusses the recent rise in the S&P 500 index and notes the need for additional volume. Reviewing the chart for Cisco Systems (CSCO) she describes the price life cycle of the stock as it passes through an accumulation phase or the Basing process; the Uptrend representing aggressive demand (buying); the Distribution phase or creation of the top; the Downtrend representing aggressive supply (selling); and enters the 6-year Repair process from which it is now emerging as a "pounding buy." In contrast, the chart of Centex Corp. (CTX) shows that it is still in the distribution phase and any rallies could be used as opportunities to sell. One final word of caution: "Bottom fishing can be dangerous to your wealth." Video of the interview is available at: cnbc.com/id/21036111.

September 12, 2007: Interviewed about the rise in the price of gold by Sue Herera on CNBC TV's Power Lunch, Louise said that gold remains in a structural bull market, as does oil. Structural bull markets can last one or even two decades and gold's rise from its breakout at 300 and now through 690 can be considered the first or second step of a long-term rise. Current projected targets are 750, 830 and 900 as gold moves up from the consolidation it has been in since its decline of 2006.

The recent mortgage market problems that have brought about what may be the first cyclical decline in the equity market's four and one-half year advance may have an indirect connection to the price of gold. The apparent selling of equities into rallies over the last several weeks may have resulted in money migrating to gold, thereby fueling its rise.

Also, the weak dollar, now just breaking through a 34-year support at 80, carries an inverse relationship to gold and has broken into uncharted waters. Looked at from a broad, trade-weighted perspective, the dollar has broken a 25-year uptrend and recently broke a 6-year top. We are concerned that the dollar may now be in a structural bear market and we have lower targets.

Each pullback that gold has experienced during its consolidation after the June 2006 low has been "beautifully orderly" with the price holding each time at higher lows, representing demand. Any pullbacks from the current price of gold toward 690, which can now be considered support, can be viewed as opportunities to add to positions.

The interview is available in streaming video at the CNBC TV web site.

August 16, 2007: In an interview in an article by Ellis Mnyandu at reuters.com, Louise discussed the drop in the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks from its 52-week high. She noted that "this is definitely a cyclical correction taking place" and that, in contrast, the S&P 500 index did not experience a ten percent correction during its bull phase that followed the bursting of the Internet bubble in March 2000. Even more significant, "the next level which I think will be broken are the market's February-March lows." That will be the first time "that supply will be overcoming demand in the duration of this up-trend that started in 2003."

August 2, 2007: Appearing on PBS's Nightly Business Report in an interview by Suzanne Pratt, Louise noted that there are very oversold conditions in the advance-decline data, in volume, and in up-down volume and until those conditions are alleviated there could be further downside. She noted also that financials have always accompanied a rising market and that, unfortunately, a market has always followed the financials down. The decline in financials might have implications for larger portions of this market.

July 27, 2007: Interviewed on Bloomberg TV's Morning Call by Matt Miller, Louise discussed that several weeks of declining indicators, at the same time as the markets rose to new highs, suggested that a cyclical decline might be brewing. Deep oversold levels, empirical evidence of selling, indicate weakness. Rallies could carry into resistance of recently violated support level. Financials are particularly weak and for the most part represent sell-on-strength.

June 12, 2007: For the second year in a row, Louise is a guest speaker at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit. Reuters describes this conference as "a direct link to top business leaders, investors and regulators." Louise discussed trends currently affecting the major stock market indexes as well as trends impacting the U.S. dollar.

June 12, 2007: Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC (LYA) has become Research Consultant to the new equity portfolio management strategy of MB Investment Partners, Inc. (MB), a New York-based wealth management firm. This new Enhanced Technical Sector Model Portfolio combines LYA's proprietary technical research with MB's portfolio management expertise and experience. As Research Consultant, LYA provides sub-industry, sector and other technical recommendations. Inquiries for further information on Enhanced Technical Sector Strategy or new accounts should be directed to MB: Christine Munn at 212.370.7300 Ext.231 or cmunn@mbipinc.com.

June 7, 2007: Interviewed by Erin Burnett on CNBC TV's Street Signs about the recent decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Louise notes that even a further 600 point selloff would still be within the context of the current bull market. Such a decline would be well within the definition of a consolidation (a decline off the highs of up to 10%) within a continuing bull market. Thus, conceptually the DJIA could come all the way back to 12,300 and the S&P 500 to 1385 and still be within the confines of a consolidation.

More important support, however, would be around 12,800 for the Dow and 1460 for the S&P which would be the support of the old highs back in February of this year. While the market is extended over the short term, and there have been negative divergences on a daily basis over the past month, until proven otherwise the intermediate- and long-term trends are still intact.

Regarding the rise in the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds to 5.1%, Louise does not feel that there is a "magic number" for interest rates that would necessarily trigger an end to the bull market -- as long as we maintain the liquidity that we have been seeing globally. The bond has been in a trading range from 3.5% to 5.5% that has been the transition from the 25-year, or 26-year, bull market in bonds towards the next bear market in bonds. The last bear market in bonds began in 1946 and the equities markets continued up until 1966 -- along with rising interest rates.